Maps showing the location and expected date of the fall of the lost Chinese missile

Maps showing the location and expected date of the fall of the lost Chinese missile
Maps showing the location and expected date of the fall of the lost Chinese missile

The remnants of a huge Chinese missile that may fall to the ground occupy the minds of many around the world, especially with conflicting news about when it will arrive, where it will fall, and the possible effects of that.

The International Astronomy Center said that no party in the world can know where and when this debris will fall, as the prediction process is marred by many factors of inaccuracy for various reasons, including knowing the shape in which the debris will enter the atmosphere, and knowing the density of the upper atmosphere accurately. The moment of entry as it changes with the change of solar activity.

The center explained that, “until the moment of writing this report, the predictions of the US Department of Defense indicate that the date of the fall is on July 30 at 18:39 GMT, with a margin of error of plus minus 15 hours, while the forecasts of the satellite follow-up program of the International Astronomy Center indicate that The expected date is July 30 at 12:48 GMT plus minus 11 hours."

The center published a map indicating the location of the expected fall, according to the expectations of the satellite follow-up program.

The center explained that "the green and red lines indicate the places where the satellite may fall within a margin of error of plus minus 11 hours. This map will change over time, and the closer we get to the date of the fall, the smaller the margin of error and the fewer candidate places for debris to fall on it, but certainly until Two hours before the date of the fall, it is not possible to determine the exact location and time, usually the lowest margin of error is about plus minus one hour, and if we know that this debris circles the globe once every 89 minutes, this means that the margin of error of two hours means that there are large areas It will still be threatened by the fall of the satellite over it."

**** The lost missile.

On Sunday, China launched a space rocket named (Long March 5) of the model (CZ-5B), carrying one of the main pieces called (Wentian) to dock with the Chinese space station (Tiangong).

The rocket consists of four large jet boosters and only one main stage, and the main stage currently revolves around the Earth once every 89 minutes.

Since this piece revolves around the Earth and is an artificial piece, according to the scientific terminological definition, it is now called a satellite, and it is a type of space debris.

Contrary to what is overly common, the issue of satellites falling towards the Earth is a normal and recurring topic almost on a weekly basis, but what distinguishes these falls is that it is a larger piece than the usual rate.

This wreck is 33 meters long, 5 meters in diameter, and weighs approximately 21 tons. It orbits the Earth at an average speed of just over 28 thousand kilometers per hour.

**** What happens about the fall of satellites?

At an altitude of 120 km, the satellite suffers from severe friction with the atmosphere, so its temperature rises and begins to disintegrate, and at an altitude of 78 km, the satellite explodes due to the intense pressure and heat and remains on fire until a height of between 40 and 50 km.

During this journey, from 120 to 40 kilometers, it is seen in the sky as a very bright and flaming body and consists of several luminous pieces.

After that, the lighting disappears, and its fall towards the ground continues in free fall, and it cannot be seen until it hits the ground.

Usually, because of the aforementioned, it only reaches the Earth between 10 to 40 percent of the initial mass of the satellite, but because of the size of this large debris, the rest of it may pose a danger to the place where it will fall exclusively.

Since water constitutes 71 percent of the land area, the rate of its fall into the sea is also 71 percent.

All satellites orbiting the Earth in low orbits (less than 1,000 km) end up falling towards Earth due to their constant friction with the atmosphere.

And about 70 percent of the fall of the effective satellites is uncontrolled, that is, it falls at an unspecified time and place, while only 30 percent of the fall of the satellites is controlled, and this is only for large satellites or loaded with dangerous materials.

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