Invading Ukraine will unleash forces the Kremlin can't control

Invading Ukraine will unleash forces the Kremlin can't control
Invading Ukraine will unleash forces the Kremlin can't control

An analysis published by Foreign Affairs magazine warned that Russia's war on Ukraine could  unleash forces that the Kremlin will not be able to control. 

The analysis prepared by Douglas London, who worked in the field of intelligence for more than three decades, indicated that the motives of Russian President Vladimir Putin for the war may become more clear in the coming weeks, but if it aims to redraw the borders or even overthrow the current government, it will face groups An  inevitable rebellion  as it would be difficult to control such groups.

He noted that Russia's military advantages over Ukrainian forces will diminish as the enemy it is fighting turns from an organized army to a  mobile decentralized resistance as Putin's forces will face harassment that may undermine the military discipline of Russian forces.

He added that this resistance will be accompanied by impact campaigns that include horrific images of massacres and military and civilian deaths, which will inflame anti-war sentiments in Russia, and even in areas whose residents may be more inclined to accept Russian rule in Ukraine.

The Russians may discover, in later stages of the war, the emergence of many rebel groups, and they may need years to reveal their organization and leaders of these groups, especially since the rebel groups adapt faster than the organized armies that are fighting them, according to the analysis.

The analysis stressed that the Ukrainian rebels need to take into account the technological progress that will make their work more difficult, especially in light of the availability of remotely piloted aircraft, satellite monitoring and other modern technologies.

The magazine's analysis did not rule out that the Russians would describe these rebel groups as terrorist groups, as they would target and liquidate their elements, even though they are freedom fighters.

He added that the Ukrainian rebel groups may need time to gain the strength, maturity and organization required to reach the stage of achieving effective and meaningful attacks.

So far, Russia penetrates into Ukrainian territory through three axes: south from Crimea to the city of Kherson on the Dnieper River, from the north from Belarus to Kyiv along two routes to the northeast and northwest of the Ukrainian capital, and east from the Russian city of Belgorod to the large industrial city of Kharkiv , according to Pentagon estimates.

A senior Pentagon official said Friday that the Russian attack on Ukraine had  lost some of its momentum over the past 24 hours, with resistance from the Ukrainian army  more intense than Moscow had expected, according to an AFP report.

The senior US official told reporters on condition of anonymity that Russia has not yet fully controlled Ukrainian airspace.

 The Ukrainian air defense is still operating, although it has been damaged by Russian air strikes he said.  They still have anti-missile defense and  they still have planes that prevent Russian planes from reaching Ukrainian airspace. 

He noted that the  command and control  capabilities of the Ukrainian army, which allow to coordinate military operations at the highest level, remain  intact .

And the senior Pentagon official added We believe that in the past 24 hours  the Russians have lost some of their momentum they are facing more resistance than they expected. 

 They are not advancing as much or as fast as we think they expected  he said, noting that the Russian army had not yet taken control of any Ukrainian city.

On Friday, the White House announced that the United States would follow the lead of the European Union and Britain and impose sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, including preventing them from entering its territory.

US presidential spokeswoman Jen Psaki told reporters that the US travel ban would be  part  of the US sanctions against Putin and Lavrov for their roles in the invasion of Ukraine.

Psaki also warned that if Russian forces, which have invaded Ukraine since dawn on Thursday, try to target Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, it would be a  terrible act. 


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